Device Packaging 2019

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ELECTRONIC PRODUCT COMPRISED OF MASS-PRODUCED COMPONENTS: PREDICTED PROBABILITY OF NON-FAILURE
Keywords: SFR, PFR, Failure
Two major irreversible processes, statistics-of-failure-related (SFR) and physics-of-failure-related (PFR), take place during the operation of an electronic product [1-3]. The first process results in a decreasing failure rate with time, while the second one leads to an increasing failure rate. A way to quantify the favorable effect of the SFR process is suggested in this analysis for an electronic product comprised of mass-produced components, whose SFR failure rate is considered to be a random variable distributed between zero and infinity. Calculations carried out assuming normal or Rayleigh probability distributions (see, e.g., [4]) of this failure rate indicate that the probability distribution of the mass-produced components comprising an electronic product has a considerable effect on its nonrandom SFR; that the normal distribution is more conservative, i.e. results, for the given time in operation, in higher probabilities of SFR failures; that although the non-random SFR of the product decreases with time, the corresponding probability of non-failure of the product determined assuming the exponential law of reliability still decreases with time for the most of the operation time; and that the favorable SFR effect may or may not have an appreciable impact on the total probability of non-failure. This is because the PFR probabilities of non-failure become very low at the wear-out portion of the product’s life, while the total probability of non-failure is determined, for the given moment of time, as the product of the probabilities of non-failure associated with both major irreversible processes in question. It is concluded that the favorable role of the decrease in the product’s SFR, owing to the random nature of the SFR of its mass-produced components, should always be assessed in a thorough reliability analysis, and that such an assessment could be done on the basis of the developed methodology. An incentive for that is particularly significant for highly reliable products, not prone to extensive degradation, which suppresses, to a greater or lesser extent, the favorable SFR effect.
Ephraim Suhir,
Portland State University
Los Altos, CA
USA


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