\/ Definitions for Chip Equipment Weather Conditions \/             \/ Regional Weather Conditions \/          TCI 12-Nov-07    
       Weather Types                                  Definition  
  Humid: It's so good our sales conference will be in Hawaii.   Cellular: Cooling, Clear Foundry/Subcon: Cooling, Clear      
  Hot: It's as easy as selling cold drinks on a hot summer day.   Digital Consumer: Cooling, Clear Digital, Analog, & Other:  
  Sunny: Visibility is great, extending well past six months.   Other SOC: Cooling, Clearing                         Cooling, Clearing      
  Clear: Visibility is clear out to six months.   Memory: Cooling, Clear Global: Cooling, Clear    
  Clearing: Things are looking better on the horizon.        
  Fog: Visibility has been temporarily lost.   Week Average SOC Memory Foundry/ DAO[1] Chips to[2] Chip Stocks Equipment Stocks HT2[3] Yield[4]  
  Cloudy: Things look worse on the horizon.   Ending Weather Cell Dig Cons Other Subcon Coffee F P/E Prices F EPS F P/E Prices F EPS Index 10Y T-Bills S&P 500 Intel Starbucks  
  Chilly: Visibility is clear.  But there is no significant order activity.   7/2/2007 73.3 70 80 65 72 84 69 0.79 24.0 19.2 0.80 18.4 35.4 1.92 31.61 5.14% 5.55% 5.64% 4.08%    
  Rain: Expected orders lost.  Budgets vaporizing.   7/9/2007 74.0 71 81 66 71 85 70 0.81 25.7 20.0 0.78 18.6 35.9 1.93 32.74 5.09% 5.45% 5.43% 4.03%    
  Storms: Companies reorganizing.  Hard orders are being canceled.   7/16/2007 75.2 72 83 67 73 85 71 0.86 26.8 20.8 0.78 18.8 36.2 1.92 33.65 5.10% 5.36% 5.16% 4.07%    
  Tornadoes: Expect heads to roll soon.   7/23/2007 77.0 74 84 68 78 86 72 0.77 25.8 20.1 0.78 19.4 37.1 1.91 33.27 5.10% 5.42% 5.58% 3.83%    
  Icy Roads: Things look okay, but one wrong move can kill your career.   7/30/2007 77.5 75 85 69 78 87 71 0.71 23.8 18.5 0.78 18.3 35.1 1.92 29.78 5.03% 5.71% 5.82% 3.94%    
  Snow:   Hitting bottom.  Calm & quiet, but order activity frozen.   8/6/2007 78.7 77 86 70 79 87 73 0.74 23.8 18.1 0.76 18.4 34.3 1.86 29.90 4.88% 5.80% 5.73% 4.03%    
  Frozen: No significant order activity.  No end in sight.   8/13/2007 79.3 78 87 71 80 86 74 0.71 23.8 18.3 0.77 18.0 33.8 1.88 29.76 4.77% 5.72% 5.71% 3.78%    
  Temperature Ranges                                  Definition   8/20/2007 79.0 79 86 72 78 84 75 0.74 23.1 17.6 0.76 17.0 32.1 1.88 28.54 4.79% 5.89% 5.78% 3.97%    
  > 100 Degrees F: Delivery is the only issue.  Litho lead-times past 18 months.   8/27/2007 75.8 77 82 70 74 80 72 0.75 22.7 18.1 0.80 17.1 33.7 1.97 29.82 4.70% 5.75% 5.53% 3.84%    
  >  90  Degrees F: Orders coming in with no sales effort - some out of the blue.   9/3/2007 74.7 76 79 71 73 78 71 0.78 23.1 18.3 0.79 17.5 34.3 1.96 30.66 4.62% 5.77% 5.32% 3.85%    
  >  80  Degrees F: Orders accelerating.  Capacity buys.  Delivery is the issue.   9/10/2007 74.5 77 78 72 71 77 72 0.78 23.1 18.3 0.79 17.2 33.7 1.96 30.19 4.55% 5.85% 5.38% 3.90%    
  76-80 Degrees F: B:B ratios should come in at a sustainable 1.1:1.   9/17/2007 74.2 78 77 73 70 76 71 0.75 22.5 18.0 0.80 16.9 33.1 1.96 29.91 4.48% 5.85% 5.62% 3.84%    
  70-75 Degrees F: Just meeting reasonable quotas.  B:B Ratios are 1:1   9/24/2007 67.8 71 70 67 64 68 67 0.79 22.8 18.2 0.80 17.3 33.9 1.96 30.45 4.42% 5.58% 5.41% 3.86%    
  <  70 Degrees F: Orders are expected to decelerate.  Price is more the issue.   10/1/2007 66.7 70 69 66 62 67 66 0.82 23.5 18.7 0.80 17.4 34.2 1.96 31.04 4.57% 5.57% 5.41% 4.05%    
  <  60 Degrees F: No way we'll meet quotas.  B:B Ratios are 0.9:1   10/8/2007 66.0 69 68 65 63 66 65 0.81 22.0 18.4 0.84 17.4 34.8 2.00 32.18 4.61% 5.45% 5.52% 3.95%    
  <  50 Degrees F: Technology buys only.   10/15/2007 65.3 67 66 64 66 65 64 0.81 21.9 18.3 0.84 17.3 34.5 1.99 32.89 4.57% 5.44% 5.52% 3.99%    
  <  40 Degrees F: Technology is a hard sell.   10/22/2007 66.0 66 65 65 67 67 66 0.84 21.0 17.8 0.85 17.3 34.2 1.97 32.62 4.67% 5.66% 5.63% 4.02%    
  <  30 Degrees F: It's like selling refrigerators to Eskimos.   10/29/2007 65.7 65 64 66 68 66 65 0.76 20.6 17.6 0.85 16.5 32.8 2.00 32.36 4.57% 5.53% 5.71% 4.01%    
  <  20 Degrees F: We can't give product away.  Relationship selling only.   11/5/2007 65.5 64 63 67 69 66 64 0.80 20.8 17.8 0.85 16.2 32.2 1.98 32.46 4.39% 5.62% 5.52% 4.11%    
  <  10 Degrees F: They're not returning calls.  5+ attempts made.   11/12/2007 64.5 63 62 66 68 65 63 0.86 20.5 17.2 0.84 15.4 31.1 2.02 30.81 4.39% 5.84% 5.88% 4.65%    
       
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[1]
Discrete, Analog, & Other
[2]
The ratio of Intel to Starbucks Stock Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios.  It is intended as a quick measure of how investors view the health of the chip industry relative to the trendy side of the old economy, with the view that by taking a ratio of the valuations of the leaders is an approximation of this.  Both companies are the leaders in their areas as well as being leading edge in product delivery. - Dan
[3]
Dan: High Tech Hotties: A rolling index of stocks that made it into the hot stock list in 3 weeks of the prior month.
[4]
Dan: Yield is the rate on T-notes and 1/PE for the S&P 500, Intel, and Starbucks.  Normally, yields for stocks should be above that of T-bills, since they carry greater risk.  If they invert it means either stocks are undervalued or T-bills are over valued.