Text Box: VLSIís Weather Indicator Instrument Panel's GPA fell from 3.75 points to 3.71 due to weaker stocks.  

The forecast for 2007 has not changed from the previous update.  In fact, the IC industry is doing better and we've upgraded the sales forecast.  In addition, the display equipment business is seeing a slight uptick in demand. As the chart shows, twelve of  the industry indicators are in Hot territory.

What is concerning is what's happening at the macro level. The impact of the credit crunch is turning out to be much bigger than originally expected and has cast a web of anxiety over the entire electronics food chain. For this reason, we have downgraded the forecast for 2008. VLSI is still calling for a positive year in 2008, but we have lowered the sales growth for both chips and equipment on account of a slowing economy. 

                                         -- Aida
 
                               
  Weather Indicator Instrument Panel  
  Weather Conditions: Storms Warning Fog Clear Sunny Hot  
       
  Climate Trends:   x    
  Stocks:   x      
  Spot Prices:   x          
  †† IC ASPs:     x    
  IC Inventories - OEMs:   x    
  Die Banks:           x  
  Fab Capacity:           x  
  Realized:     x  
  Unrealized:       x  
  by Node:††         x  
  by Wafer Size:         x  
  Test Capacity:   x  
  Assembly Capacity:           x  
  Equipment-to-IC Sales Ratio:   x    
  Equipment Orders:   x      
  IC Orders:         x    
  Equipment Revenues:   x    
  CSubs Revenues:     x    
  FPD Revenues:     x  
  IC Revenues:           x  
  RPSI of Production:   x  
  EPSI:   x  
  Electronics:   x      
  Macroeconomy:   x    
      GPA †††† Comments  
  Current Count 0 3 4 2 3 12 3.71 It's cooling, but we are in the X'mas Blackhole.    
  October 0 1 5 3 3 12 3.83 Moving forward with plenty of caution.  
  September 0 1 5 4 7 7 3.58 Key indicators are solid, but economy drags.  
  August 0 1 3 8 8 4 3.46 Industry fundamentals are solid, but equipment lags.  
  July 0 1 4 7 7 5 3.46 Spot prices are firming.  
  June 0 1 3 9 7 4 3.42 Positive indicators outnumber the negative; economy is improving.  
  May 0 2 6 7 7 2 3.04 Conditions mixed.  
  April 0 1 8 11 3 1 2.79 Conditions foggy past 2Q.  
  March 0 1 4 14 5 0 2.96 It has chilled once again.  
  February 1 1 2 16 3 1 2.92 It is clearing, but weak prices are still a concern.  
  January 1 2 1 18 1 1 2.79 The fog has rolled in and it is cold.  
  December 2006 0 3 1 19 1 0 2.75 It is cooling, but still clear.  
  November 0 2 1 21 0 0 2.79 We've entered the Christmas Black Hole.  
  October 0 1 3 17 3 0 2.92 Goldilocks: Not too hot or too cold.    
  September 0 1 2 17 4 0 3.00 Goldilocks: Not too hot or too cold.    
  August 1 4 4 13 2 0 2.57 Mixed pictures.    
  July 2 4 6 7 3 2 2.57 Warning signs abound.    
  June 0 3 7 3 1 10 3.48 Has it peaked?    
  May 1 4 0 3 5 11 3.83 It is hot, but the bifurcation is back.    
  April 0 3 1 3 9 8 3.91 It's sunny and hot. Bifurcation down.    
  March 2 5 1 1 7 8 3.39 It's overheating, with a bad bifurcation.  
  February 0 3 2 5 11 4 3.58 It's cooling, but still pointing to the right.  
  January 2006 0 4 3 3 9 6 3.54 We're still in the Christmas Black Hole.    
  December 2005 1 5 1 3 7 8 3.50 We told you to worry about the economy.Now worry about spot prices.  
  November 1 3 1 3 8 9 3.79 Pointing to an up 2006.Worry about bifurcation - econ pic dk.  
  October 0 4 0 4 8 9 3.88 It's hot, but the leading indicators are negative.  
  September 0 5 1 5 5 9 3.63 Caution is on the rise.  
  August 0 2 4 4 12 3 3.54 The second half is growing brighter.  
  July 2 1 3 6 10 3 3.33 SEMICON turned the industry.  
  June 0 4 1 11 8 1 3.17 Conditions are improving.  
  May 0 4 2 11 6 1 3.04 It's bifurcating in a way that is good news for chip makers.  
  April 0 1 2 16 5 0 3.17 Oversupply a nagging problem.  
  March 0 1 6 16 1 0 2.83 After a rough Feb, conditions are improving.  
  February 2 8 4 8 2 0 2.09 It's cold, foggy, and the narrow roads are slippery.  
  January 2005 2 5 3 9 4 0 2.45 Conditions improving, but spottiness exudes caution.  
  December 2004 2 6 1 8 4 0 2.29 Visibility is improving despite the Christmas Black Hole.  
  November 1 8 4 6 3 0 2.19 It's turned back down, with many warnings.    
  October 0 8 3 8 3 0 2.38 Mixed picture pointing to mixed results next year.            
  September 0 8 3 9 2 0 2.33 Signs of improvement abound.              
  August 2 8 3 6 2 0 1.90 Many indicators are flashing warnings.    
  July 2 1 1 6 8 3 3.24 Saddling down.    
  June 2 4 1 2 2 10 3.33 Situation improves slightly.    
  May 2 4 2 1 2 10 3.29 Saddling is a further warning.    
  April 1 4 3 5 5 3 2.86 First warning of downturn's edge    
  March 0 1 1 4 14 1 3.62 It's too hot.    
  February 0 0 1 7 13 0 3.57 It's Hot.    
  Definitions note[1]     TCI 71112.16  
  RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company.Copyright © 2007 by VLSI Research Inc.All rights reserved.  
 
 
  Update instructions:  
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  Each Month at beginning:  
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  Copy-Paste-Value Current line to empty row  
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[1]
VLSIís Weather Indicator Instrument Panel is intended as a visualization tool to show whatís happening across the 28 charts and tables in this graphics file.Changed settings display priorratings in lighter pastel fonts.Historical counts are taken mid-month.

The Weather GPA (Grade Point Average) is an weighting of all these indicators similar to a school grade, where the range is from 0 to 5.
[2]
VLSIís Weather Indicator Instrument Panel is intended as a visualization tool to show whatís happening across the 28 charts and tables in this graphics file.Changed settings display priorratings in lighter pastel fonts.Historical counts are taken mid-month.