Equipment (IC & FPD)   Chips (ICs only)  
 
  Revenue Qtr/Qtr Order Qtr/Qtr     Revenue Qtr/Qtr Order Qtr/Qtr  
    Forecast Growth Forecast Growth     Forecast Growth Forecast Growth  
    ($B) (%) ($B) (%)     ($B) (%) ($B) (%)  
  1Q00 12.3 8.7% 14.9 26.6%   1Q00 39.2 1.5% 51.7 31.2%  
  2Q00 14.5 18.3% 19.4 29.8%   2Q00 43.5 11.0% 53.6 3.8%  
  3Q00 16.8 15.4% 21.2 9.1%   3Q00 47.9 10.1% 55.6 3.7%  
  4Q00 17.1 1.8% 17.6 -16.8%   4Q00 46.3 -3.4% 38.5 -30.8%  
  1Q01 14.6 -14.5% 9.1 -48.1%   1Q01 36.8 -20.5% 22.3 -41.9%  
  2Q01 10.0 -31.3% 5.7 -37.2%   2Q01 29.3 -20.5% 23.2 4.0%  
  3Q01 8.3 -16.8% 3.7 -34.8%   3Q01 26.0 -11.2% 26.0 11.7%  
  4Q01 6.6 -20.7% 4.0 7.1%   4Q01 26.4 1.4% 27.0 3.9%  
  1Q02 6.6 -0.8% 6.2 54.0%   1Q02 27.8 5.5% 36.1 33.7%  
  2Q02 7.5 14.8% 9.7 57.9%   2Q02 29.0 4.1% 29.1 -19.4%  
  3Q02 8.3 10.0% 8.6 -11.4%   3Q02 31.4 8.4% 28.5 -2.0%  
  4Q02 8.2 -1.4% 8.1 -5.8%   4Q02 32.3 2.9% 33.5 17.6%  
  1Q03 8.5 4.1% 8.5 4.1%   1Q03 30.9 -4.3% 29.8 -11.1%  
  2Q03 7.5 -12.0% 7.2 -14.5%   2Q03 31.8 2.8% 35.0 17.6%  
  3Q03 8.8 17.6% 8.8 22.2%   3Q03 36.6 15.3% 40.8 16.6%  
  4Q03 9.9 12.6% 11.9 34.8%   4Q03 40.6 10.9% 50.6 23.9%  
  1Q04 13.0 31.1% 13.7 15.3%   1Q04 40.9 0.8% 49.4 -2.4%  
  2Q04 13.4 3.5% 15.9 15.5%   2Q04 44.9 9.6% 50.9 3.1%  
  3Q04 14.6 8.6% 14.6 -8.3%   3Q04 46.5 3.7% 42.7 -16.1%  
  4Q04 13.1 -10.5% 12.3 -15.7%   4Q04 46.5 -0.1% 45.6 6.6%  
  1Q05 13.9 6.2% 12.1 -1.3%   1Q05 46.7 0.6% 50.7 11.4%  
  2Q05 12.5 -10.0% 12.2 0.7%   2Q05 45.4 -2.8% 46.3 -8.7%  
  3Q05 12.8 2.5% 13.8 13.1%   3Q05 49.7 9.5% 50.6 9.2%  
  4Q05 12.6 -1.3% 15.3 10.8%   4Q05 50.9 2.4% 52.0 2.9%  
  1Q06 14.5 15.1% 17.2 12.6%   1Q06 50.1 -1.5% 56.5 8.5%  
  2Q06 15.0 3.0% 19.4 13.1%   2Q06 49.8 -0.7% 55.3 -2.1%  
  3Q06 16.0 6.9% 18.6 -4.2%   3Q06 54.0 8.5% 57.6 4.2%  
  4Q06 15.6 -2.7% 16.8 -9.8%   4Q06 55.7 3.2% 54.1 -6.1%  
  1Q07 16.1 3.1% 17.4 3.8%   1Q07 51.8 -6.9% 53.6 -1.1%  
  2Q07 15.7 -2.5% 16.4 -6.1%   2Q07 50.8 -2.0% 54.3 1.4%  
  3Q07 16.0 2.1% 15.3 -6.7%   3Q07 58.7 15.6% 61.8 13.8%  
  4Q07 15.1 -5.8% 14.1 -7.7%   4Q07 59.7 1.6% 61.7 -0.2%  
  1Q08 16.3 8.1% 15.9 13.0%   1Q08 57.1 -4.3% 57.5 -6.8%  
  2Q08 16.3 -0.1% 17.0 6.5%   2Q08 56.4 -1.2% 60.5 5.3%  
  3Q08 17.5 7.6% 18.2 7.6%   3Q08 61.1 8.3% 67.4 11.3%  
  4Q08 18.0 2.9% 18.2 -0.2%   4Q08 62.8 2.8% 65.1 -3.3%  
Text Box: 2007: For Equipment, the revennue forecast for the remainder of the year did not change from last month's update, but we have lowered the order estimate for 3Q07 by $1.4B and for 4Q07 by $2.6B. For ICs, we expect revenues to be higher than in our previous update, with 3Q revenues bumped up by $0.1B and 4Q by $1.0B.
2008: The revenue forecasts for both equipment and ICs have been trimmed significantly from last month's update. Despite the fact that all the industry indicators we monitor are healthy and that the forecast models are pointing to double-digit growths in both chips and equipment in 2008, we cannot dismiss how the macroeconomic picture has deteriorated since the summer. Consequently, VLSI has downgraded  the electronics forecast from 8.4% last month to 6.8% resulting in the downgrading of chips and equipment sales.  --Aida
 
   
           
           
             
            \/ U.S. Economic Data Below \/        
  U.S. MACROECONOMIC DATA  
      ELECTRONICS MONEY SUPPLY PRIME T-BILL    
    GDP SHIPMENTS   (M1) RATE RATE INFLATION  
 
 
($B)* Percent Growth† ($B) Q/Q Growth   ($T) Percent Growth† (%) 3-Month (%) (%)  
  1Q01 9876 -0.5% 130.6 -9.4%   1.10 0.6% 8.6% 4.8% 3.3%  
  2Q01 9906 1.2% 122.2 -6.4%   1.12 8.3% 7.3% 3.7% 3.1%  
  3Q01 9871 -1.4% 112.8 -7.7%   1.16 13.8% 6.6% 3.2% 1.6%  
  4Q01 9910 1.6% 114.8 1.7%   1.18 6.9% 5.2% 1.9% 1.7%  
  1Q02 9977 2.7% 100.2 -12.7%   1.19 3.3% 4.8% 1.7% 1.7%  
  2Q02 10032 2.2% 101.7 1.5%   1.19 1.3% 4.8% 1.7% 1.5%  
  3Q02 10091 2.4% 98.3 -3.4%   1.19 -1.0% 4.8% 1.6% 1.6%  
  4Q02 10096 0.2% 98.5 0.3%   1.22 9.2% 4.5% 1.3% 2.2%  
  1Q03 10126 1.2% 90.3 -8.3%   1.23 5.4% 4.3% 1.2% 3.1%  
  2Q03 10213 3.5% 94.3 4.4%   1.27 13.3% 4.2% 1.0% 1.3%  
  3Q03 10399 7.5% 96.8 2.7%   1.29 5.8% 4.0% 0.9% 2.1%  
  4Q03 10467 2.7% 104.1 7.5%   1.30 5.1% 4.0% 0.9% 2.2%  
  1Q04 10544 3.0% 95.3 -8.4%   1.32 3.2% 4.0% 0.9% 3.7%  
  2Q04 10634 3.5% 98.4 3.3%   1.34 8.2% 4.0% 1.1% 3.8%  
  3Q04 10729 3.6% 99.4 0.9%   1.35 1.7% 4.4% 1.5% 2.3%  
  4Q04 10796 2.5% 105.2 5.8%   1.37 8.5% 4.9% 2.0% 3.2%  
  1Q05 10878 3.1% 97.8 -7.0%   1.37 -2.5% 5.4% 2.5% 3.9%  
  2Q05 10954 2.8% 101.4 3.7%   1.37 2.4% 5.9% 2.9% 2.6%  
  3Q05 11074 4.5% 102.2 0.8%   1.37 -1.7% 6.4% 3.4% 3.5%  
  4Q05 11107 1.2% 108.9 6.5%   1.38 2.9% 7.0% 3.8% 3.5%  
  1Q06 11239 4.8% 103.6 -4.8%   1.38 -0.3% 7.4% 4.4% 3.4%  
  2Q06 11307 2.4% 109.8 5.9%   1.38 0.8% 8.1% 4.8% 3.5%  
  3Q06 11337 1.1% 110.5 0.6%   1.36 -4.9% 8.3% 4.9% 2.4%  
  4Q06 11396 2.1% 113.1 2.4%   1.37 2.9% 8.3% 4.9% 1.7%  
  1Q07 11413 0.6% 106.4 -5.9%   1.37 -2.0% 8.3% 5.0% 4.2%  
  2Q07 11524 4.0% 112.9 6.1%   1.38 4.9% 8.3% 4.7% 2.7%  
  3Q07 11582 2.0% 111.8 -1.0%   1.37 -4.7% 8.3% 4.5% 2.0%  
  4Q07 11643 2.1% 120.1 7.4%   1.38 4.1% 7.7% 4.4% 2.8%  
  1Q08 11709 2.3% 113.6 -5.4%   1.39 3.4% 7.6% 4.3% 2.6%  
  2Q08 11786 2.6% 120.8 6.3%   1.41 4.6% 7.5% 4.3% 2.0%  
  3Q08 11881 3.3% 123.3 2.1%   1.42 5.3% 7.5% 4.2% 2.5%  
  4Q08 11952 2.4% 131.7 6.8%   1.44 4.4% 7.5% 4.3% 2.7%  
                   
  * Chained '00 Dollars † Annual Rate of Growth            
    ($B)* Percent Growth† ($B) Q/Q Growth   ($T) Percent Growth† (%) 3-Month (%) (%)  
 
 
    ELECTRONICS MONEY SUPPLY PRIME T-BILL    
    GDP SHIPMENTS   (M1) RATE RATE INFLATION  
  RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only within your company.  Copyright © 2007 by VLSI Research Inc.  All rights reserved.